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June 18, 2006

On the state of political debate.

I've been having a discussion with some friends of mine about the state of political debate in America and especially the role pundits play in the debate. I've excerpted some of my comments and posted them here. I've been watching the pundits for sometime now and noting their style, but the debate really got started when Ann Coulter called some 9/11 widows "harpies" and suggested they should pose in playboy. I used this as an excellent example of how I believe the pundits are degrading political debate in America, and working to polarize the nation. For the record, she said:

They're "harpies" who seem to be "enjoying their husbands' deaths...and by the way, how do we know their husbands weren't planning to divorce these harpies? Now that their shelf life is dwindling, they'd better hurry up and appear in Playboy.”

You’ll note that there isn't much in the way of verifiable statements in her claim. It really just seems like the ragings of an angry lady who disagrees with someone, and feels obligated to hurl personal insults their way, much as a seven year old would do. She's entitled to hurl her insults, and I'm sure she is encouraged to do so by her publisher, and finds solace in her bank balance after creating such controversy. All that said, I seriously doubt these widows are "enjoying" their husbands death.

The issue for me is the degradation of political debate that has occured over the past 5-10 years. I'm not saying all was rosy back in the day. That would make be silly. But the growing partisanship of America and other Western countries has led to some horrible political commentary. And being the real kings of media this kind of stuff is seen best in America.

In regard to Ann’s recent insults: everyone has a right to criticize government policy. They can criticize until they go blue in the face. These ladies' have a certain media cache because their husbands were killed by terrorists. Many media agencies cover them because it makes a good story. Media agencies like selling stories, it puts food on the table.

Likewise, others have a right to counter these ladies' claims and present their arguements. Debate can be cathartic, productive, and entertaining. But Ann Coulter and other pundits on the right and the left can't constrain themselves to debate, they have to throw insults and astronomically ridiculous rhetoric into the mix (pose in playboy? What the hell is that about?). This is good for nothing except ratings.

I understand most people don't really care much for politics if it isn't packaged like professional wrestling and include mythic figures playing cartoonesque caricatures. But I wish people would start tuning this kind of garbage out (and the equivalent on the left, this is a multi-polar problem) so some decent debate can be heard.

This kind of hatred and rhetoric does no good and only acts to polarize people. It creates enemies, it doesn't seek solutions.

I'm not saying people can't voice their opinion about other's motivations or criticize the critiques of others, these are essential. But over the top insults are simply childish. It’s unfortunate people continue to take pundits seriously when they reduce themselves to such antics. Because essentially they're just responding to a demand of the market.

As I mentioned earlier, for me it isn't a question of pundits telling the truth or not. While some of them do occasionaly misrepresent the facts, this is virtually unavoidable as a journalist. While they should be kept to a minimum, mistakes do happen. The issue for me is one of constructive debate and criticism over spiteful attacks and partisanship. The former undoubtedly has positive effects, while the latter does little but polarize people.

I find this a very fascinating subject. I haven't come across any standard terminology to address it yet so I've started calling it ideologism. It is demonstrated in the media, mainstream and alternative, when people make judgements based upon people's political convictions as opposed to their actions. It is made worse when the ideologism is used to lump people together as if there were some sort of unity, when in reality no such agreement exists.

In her recent book Ms Coulter claims that there is a "consensus position that liberals are godless." There is no such consensus, and I think most rational people would agree it is a statement bordering upon the absurd. Plenty of people who may identify themselves as liberal also have devout religious beliefs. Whether or not their belief system and subsequent moral framework coincides with Ms. Coulter's is another matter.

When a pundit makes a claim that conservatives are war-mongers or liberals are traitors they aren't really expressing anything beyond their own prejudices. Furthermore they are making the mistaken assumption that there are commonly held consensus positions amongst the left and the right which can be generalized to such a degree, when in fact no such consensus exists. It does a disservice in two ways.

Firstly, such generalizing which is usually based on the actions of one or a few individuals, takes the pundits impression of those individuals and haphazardly applies it to millions of people. This is simply poor logic and bad argumentation. I can't say because Queen Elizabeth is rich and stuck up that English people are rich and stuck up. My conclusion may or may not be true, but my argumentation is certainly flawed. Likewise I can't say because I've encountered some radically racist and purportedly religious Southern conservatives that conservatives are bigotted racists who hide behind the facade of a perverted religion. It would just be STUPID, and act to polarize people.

Beyond artifically lumping people together, and using poor logic to further their arguments, the pundits do people a disservice by judging them on their beliefs as opposed to their actions. They create a false dilemma by claiming there are two groups of people: conservatives and liberals. When in reality there is a complex variegated spectrum of political belief. They then utilize this false dilemma to vilify one particular camp. They claim that conservatives are x or liberals are y and thereby condemn people for what they believe as opposed to what they do. It would be fair to say "I disagree with those crazy bastards who protest at military funerals, in fact I hate it" because those crazy bastards are doing something which you disagree with. But to disagree with some sort of imagined unified political camp is silly, because it doesn't exist. One needs to disagree with specifics, preferrably with actual deeds.

The left-right political scale is a rather out-dated product of the French Revolution. It is useful for making incredibly broad statements about huge numbers of people, or statements about particular policies or actions. But it is seriously lacking as a way to represent the complexity of political beliefs. Liberals can believe in God, conservatives can be gay, left-wingers can oppose abortion, right-wingers can accept evolution, and the exceptions go on and on and on. When there are so many exceptions to a rule one must question the usefulness of the rule. I'm not saying nobody should ever say left-wing, right-wing, conservative, or liberal. I'm saying that when they use the terms they should realize the inherent limitations that they have.

It is because the pundits I've come across don't argue reasonably that I have little respect for their writings. I find them interesting from a sociological perspective, but as far as political analysis goes they generally churn out pap that can't stand up to very basic scrutiny.

February 28, 2006

China's Trade Surplus

PICT1255-01Here are two interesting links highlighting something we're going to hear more and more about in the future. The first is a soft news piece from the IHT adding a bit of historical perspective to China's trade surplus. It is important to remember that this isn't China's first time as the world's workshop: http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/26/...

The second is a highly entertaining effort by an American director to convey the rising nationalism in China. While accentuating America's apparent ignorance of the perceived great shift in global influence.: http://festival.sundance.org/2006/watch/film.aspx?which=402&category=DOC

December 05, 2005

Dyer's "Congagement"

This article may be of interest to some: http://www.trinidadexpress.com/index.pl/article_opinion?id=120461363.
Dyer trys to elucidate China's perspective on the current geo-political balance in East Asia. His analysis is difficult to fault. If China's GDP keeps growing faster in relation to the USA/Japan they may be able to effectively participate in an arms race in the not too distant future. This bodes ill for those who fundamentally dislike weapons, but on the upshot it bodes well for the stock prices of numerous defense suppliers. If you're disappointed in the prospect of another arms race you can always call your broker. It might help you beat the arms race blues.

November 09, 2005

Guns and Money

I was talking politics with an American friend the other day. We got onto the topic of a potential invasion by Mainland China, and began trading scenarios. He was of the firm belief that America would step up to the plate to defend Taiwan, and that once America’s mighty army becomes involved in a conflict the outcome is determined. His argument was that American military spending eclipses China’s (their closest rival) by a factor of over 5. This chart may help you visualize the differences. While this is true, at least approximately enough as PLA expenditures and profits (they have numerous business interests) are hazy at best, I exhorted him to recall that a billion dollars goes much further in China than it does in the U.S.A. This is often forgotten by individuals throwing around military expenditure figures. I’ve no idea what an average American soldier’s salary is, but if we attribute it a value of the U.S. GDP/Capita ($44 000) and multiply this by the number of active troops (1 427 000) we get the princely sum of around $63 billion. In China’s case the GDP/Capita is about $5600 (I doubt soldiers make anything close to this amount) and the number of active troops is 2 250 000, which puts their sloppily estimated payroll at about $12.6 billion.

These very rough numbers, meant only to give one an idea of the discrepancy between the two country’s military payrolls, do not include administrative personnel. While this difference is in and of itself huge, there exists a large acquisition cost differential for each country. sign.jpg America’s military procurement policy encourages huge R&D grants to private companies. For instance those provided to Beoing corporation which the Europeans always bring to light when attempting to justify their own loan guarantees to Airbus. China’s military does much of their procurement in-house or by buying ready made goods from Overseas suppliers. Furthermore the Chinese focus more of their procurement dollars on practical items such as new nuclear submarines. The United States on the other hand, in order to maintain their relative military might, spend a lot of money on speculative technological development, for items which may or may not ever see practical usage. The end result is a military dollar that goes much further in China than it does in the United States.

I’m not suggesting parity between the two militaries or even an approximation thereof. I’m simply pointing out that one cannot judge by the numbers alone, and that America’s huge military expenditure does not automatically grant it a preponderant status.

November 05, 2005

Vote down the Liberals?

I've been following the unstable political situation in Ottawa fairly closely from over here. There is much talk of a non-confidence vote, and speculation as to whether or not Jack Layton and the NDP's threats to side with the Bloc and Conservatives are genuine or not. See this story for an example. The NDP would be fools to dislodge the current government. Why would they? So they can change from being a minority party in a Liberal-minority dominated house to a minority party in a Conservative-minority dominated house? The thought is laughable. Why would the NDP want the liberals to lose seats to the Bloc and the Conservatives? The only reason they hold such political sway right now is precisely because of the current precarious political balance in the House of Commons. If the NDP do decide to vote down the Liberals (which they won't unless it becomes very obvious in the polls that that is what the people want) they had better pick up at least a few seats in BC to make up for switching from a Liberal to a Conservative dominated house.