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I'll see your request for missiles and raise you a White Paper

Lee Teng Hui was quite emphatic yesterday in his claim of Taiwan's defacto sovereignty. He also suggested that along with the defensive weapons now on the table (being blocked by the Pan-Blues) Taiwan needs to acquire offensive weapons. While I agree in principal, it is a dangerous route to pursue. If the PRC decides to take Taiwan by force the defensive options open to Taiwan will be of little importance. The People's Liberation Army can afford to simply throw men and machines at the island until it relents. However Taiwan is going to need more than a few conventional long range ballistic missiles to deter China. To act as effective deterrent they'd likely need unconventional weapons, of which the most effective deterrent would be nukes. That said, the presence of nukes on Taiwan would raise the possibility of nuclear escalation too high. In fact offensive weapons may be counter-productive to Taiwan. If China is really dead set on reclaiming the province their presence could be used by the PRC to justify a more devastating attack than would otherwise be necessary.

While Lee Teng Hui was chatting up Americans, the CCP was busy publishing yet another white paper. This time they have addressed the possibility of democratic reform in China. Their verdict: no way, no how. It is thoroughly unsurprising and depressing for those on Hong Kong who were hoping the two system approach had a hope in hell of working. The documents keeps alive such laughable concepts as "democracy under the leadership of the Communist Party of China" and the "people's democratic dictatorship" (emphasis added). This document should be carefully reviewed by those in Taiwan who sit on the fence divinding the Blues from the Greens.

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